Like-for-like sales across UK specialist plumbing and heating merchants fell slightly in February 2026, according to the latest Plumbing & Heating Merchant Index (PHMI), as higher prices offset continued declines in volumes.

The data shows like-for-like value sales were down 0.4% compared with February 2025. Volumes fell 4.1% over the same period, while prices increased by 3.9%. Trading days were unchanged year on year.

On a month-on-month basis, February sales showed a modest recovery, with like-for-like value sales up 0.6% compared with January 2026. Volumes rose 1.1%, while prices edged down 0.5%.

However, with one fewer trading day, unadjusted total value sales were down 4.2%.

Longer-term sales trends remain mixed

Over the three months from December 2025 to February 2026, like-for-like value sales were up 0.4% compared with the same period a year earlier. Volumes fell 4.4%, while prices increased 5.1%. Without adjustments for trading days, total value sales were flat.

Compared with the previous three-month period, like-for-like value sales were down 3.7%, with volumes falling 7.9% and prices up 4.6%. Unadjusted figures showed a sharper decline due to fewer trading days, with value sales down 12.6% and volumes down 16.4%.

For the 12 months to February 2026, like-for-like value sales increased 2.6% year on year. Volumes fell 1.9%, while prices rose 4.5%. Unadjusted value sales were up 2.1% over the same period.

The PHMI index for February stood at 139.0, with the unadjusted index at 134.5.

Economic uncertainty and consumer behaviour affecting demand

Commenting on the findings, Mike Rigby, Managing Director of MRA Research, which produces the PHMI, said broader economic and geopolitical pressures were influencing market conditions.

“It’s hard to see an end to the war in Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is subject to blockades from Iran and the US and peace talks are going nowhere. Meanwhile the rest of the world is being held over a barrel (an oil one). About one month from now, when average stocks run out, the global economy will be facing the consequences of a physical gas and oil shortage of about 10 million barrels a day, according to brokers Wood Mackenzie. That’s equivalent to an economic hit like Covid.

“Unsurprisingly, the latest GfK Consumer Confidence Index shows a -4-point fall in April, to -25 – the third consecutive month of decline – with consumer expectations of the general economic situation over the next 12 months, falling -6 points to -43. The major purchase index, indicative of potential spending on home improvements, remains at -18, while the savings index increased a further +5 points to 32. Consumers are favouring saving over spending.

“That said, there is one other place that consumers are increasingly keen to put their money. With rising oil and gas prices and an increase in the energy cap to come in July, there is considerable consumer interest in more sustainable living solutions to both lower household bills now and uncouple from further erratic fuel prices. Octopus Energy and British Gas both cite record increases in solar and heat pump enquiries.

“This is a significant opportunity for plumbing and heating merchants at a time when good news is in short supply. Whether it’s energy or water, pushing products that save consumers money will help drive sales in an otherwise difficult market.”

Market context

The PHMI tracks point-of-sale data from specialist plumbing and heating merchants with combined annual sales of £3bn and is based on data from NIQ GfK’s merchant panel, covering more than 70% of the market by value. It is produced by MRA Research for the Builders Merchants Federation and is designed to provide monthly performance insight across the sector.