The latest Plumbing & Heating Merchant Index (PHMI) shows that total value sales through specialist plumbing and heating merchants increased by 0.8% in October 2025 compared with the same month last year.

However, volumes fell by 2.1% year-on-year, while prices rose by 2.9%, indicating that value growth was driven primarily by price inflation rather than increased activity.

Extra trading day lifts month-on-month performance

October 2025 benefited from one additional trading day compared with September. On a like-for-like basis, value sales were 5.8% higher month-on-month.

Unadjusted figures show total value sales were 10.6% higher than September, with volumes up 7.7% and prices increasing by 2.7%.

Mixed performance across the latest quarter

In the three-month period from August to October 2025, total value sales were 1.7% higher than the same period in 2024. Over the same timeframe, volumes declined by 2.4%, while prices increased by 4.2%. There was no difference in trading days between the two periods.

Compared with the previous three months (May to July 2025), like-for-like value sales increased by 7.2%. Without adjusting for trading days, total value sales were 8.9% higher, with volumes up 3.8% and prices rising by 4.9%.

Year-to-date figures show limited volume growth

For the period January to October 2025, like-for-like value sales were 3.2% higher than the same period in 2024, despite one fewer trading day.

Unadjusted total value sales rose by 2.7% year-on-year, while volume sales were flat and prices increased by 2.7%.

 

Annual trend shows modest value growth

Over the 12-month period from November 2024 to October 2025, like-for-like value sales increased by 2.2% compared with the previous year. Without adjusting for trading days, value sales were up 1.8%, with volumes increasing by 0.5% and prices rising by 1.3%.

October’s PHMI like-for-like value sales index stood at 108.3, adjusted to reflect two additional trading days compared with the base period. The unadjusted index was 120.6.

Construction output and consumer confidence weigh on outlook

Commenting on the figures, Mike Rigby, Managing Director of MRA Research, which produces the PHMI report, said:

“Plumbing & Heating merchants saw stronger October sales than September’s, and a stronger last three months’ performance. But is this just a seasonal lift, and can growth be sustained?

“The latest ONS statistics show that total construction output fell -0.3% in the three months to October 2025, and monthly construction output for the month fell -0.6%, with private housing repair and maintenance the biggest contributor (-2.3%) to the decrease in output.

“The weakness in RMI is unsurprising given protracted uncertainty in the run up to the November budget, and the lack of feelgood factors in it to lift the spirits. The latest GfK Consumer Confidence index registered a -2 point drop in November to -19 with all metrics taking a hit, particularly the Major Purchase Index, which fell -3 points. The general economic picture was a concern for consumers, as expectations for the year ahead dropped -2 points to -32, 6 points below November 2024.

“It’s also taking longer than expected for housebuilding to respond to Government aspirations to build 300,000 homes a year for the duration of this parliament. Planning reforms, supposed to unlock the constraints on developers to deliver more homes, have hit the buffers again as a senior advisor quits after disagreements at the top of government about deregulation. Unless the government can get its own house in order, and quickly, progress in removing planning red tape is going to be stifled, and that’s not good for construction or the building materials supply chain which supports it.”

PHMI tracks specialist merchant performance

The Plumbing & Heating Merchant Index analyses point-of-sale data from specialist plumbing and heating merchants with combined annual sales of £3bn. The data is drawn from NIQ GfK’s Plumbing & Heating Merchant Panel, representing more than 70% of the market by value.

The index is produced by MRA Research for the Builders Merchants Federation and is separate from the Builders Merchants Building Index (BMBI), with no overlap in reported sales data.